East Pacific/2019/17E/Archive/4

Tropical Depression Octave	Winds: 30 kt
	Pressure: 1006 mbar
Advisory 4 / 8:00 PM PDT, Friday October 18, 2019
After lacking deep convection for a few hours, shower and thunderstorm activity has rebounded over the low-level circulation of Octave. This is sufficient to maintain the system as a tropical cyclone for now. The initial intensity remains 30kt, a little below ASCAT data given the lack of convection that occurred this afternoon. Although Octave is holding its own for now, continuing dry air entrainment and increasing upper-level winds are likely to cause it to degenerate into a remnant low within 12 hours. Octave should remain a remnant low for the remainder of the forecast period. The cyclone remains embedded in collapsed steering currents, so lingering too long on the forecast track is unwise. In general, Octave is expected to meander very near its current location over the next several days. FORECAST MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 20/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/0000Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Forecaster TAWX14
THIS FORECAST IS NOT AN OFFICIAL PRODUCT