East Pacific/2019/16E/Archive/1

Tropical Storm Narda	Winds: 40 kt
	Pressure: 1004 mbar
Advisory 1 / 8:00 AM AST, Sunday September 29, 2019
A new tropical storm has developed in the Eastern Pacific barely south of Mexico. Recently, a strong burst of convection has developed over the centre along with prominent banding features which has prompted this upgrade. Intensity is a blend of Dvorak estimates, which has been set at 40 kt. Narda does not have much time before it moves over Mexico today. The issue with the longer range intensity forecast is that any slight deviation in the track and the system could easily fail to dissipate over the Mexican mountains. However, at this time it is looking pretty clear to me that the system will make landfall on Mexico shortly and dissipate over the mountains. FORECAST MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/0600Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
Forecaster Yqt1001
THIS FORECAST IS NOT AN OFFICIAL PRODUCT