East Pacific/2019/13E/Archive/1

Tropical Depression 13E	Winds: 30 kt
	Pressure: 1006 mbar
Advisory 1 / 8:00 AM PDT, Setember 12, 2019
Another tropical cyclone has developed in the Eastern Pacific south of Mexico this morning. An ASCAT pass last night showed an elongated circulation but recent satellite imagery shows the low centre is better defined and primitive banding is beginning to develop. Initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on SAB/TAFB estimates. TD13 is situated in ideal conditions for strengthening. Shear is low, around 5 kt, and it is embedded in a moist airmass around 70% RH. Given it has multiple days over warm waters above 26C, I see no reason that the system should struggle in the medium-range. A tropical storm is likely later today and with nearly all model guidance showing a hurricane, a hurricane is likely in a couple of days. SHIPS hints that the system has a brief opportunity for rapid intensification given the system develops an inner-core before waters cool. For this reason, the intensity forecast is ahead of model guidance though still fairly uncertain. Peak intensity will depend on how quickly the system is able to develop its inner core. TD13 is trekking west-northwest at a decent clip and this movement will continue for the coming days. Around day 3 the system should slow down and begin moving northwards into a weakness in the ridge north of it. When this weakness develops still has uncertainty this far out, with ECMFW showing west-northwestward movement throughout the forecast period. On the other hand, GFS has due northward movement by day 5. A blend of these solutions has the storm moving slowly regardless by day 5. FORECAST MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 55 KT 65 MPH
Forecaster Yqt1001
THIS FORECAST IS NOT AN OFFICIAL PRODUCT