|Tropical Storm Henriette||Winds: 35 kt|
|Pressure: 1005 mbar|
|Advisory 3 / 2:00 PM PDT Monday, August 12, 2019|
The tropical cyclone in the East Pacific has become less organized today, with a decrease in the intensity and aerial coverage of convection. In fact, the system has become so poorly organized that a bare center of circulation is evident on visible imagery. Satellite intensity estimates have fallen below tropical depression threshold. Ironically, however, a 1624z ASCAT pass showed several 35kt vectors. Thus, in the interest of maintaining scientific accuracy, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Henriette. The storm sure is not winning any beauty contests, though.
The SHIPS analyzes upper-level winds to be near or less than 10kt. However, a quick glance at conventional satellite indicates that this clearly is not the case, with moderate to strong mid-level wind shear affecting Henriette. Given this fact, combined with the expectation that ocean temperatures will fall to unfavorable levels within 24 hours, weakening is expected from here out. Henriette is expected to become a remnant low in about 36 hours, although this could occur much sooner if convection does not return this evening.
Henriette is positioned south of a mid-level ridge that will force the cyclone on a west-northwest heading for the next few days. The forward trajectory may become more westerly are Henriette degenerates and later dissipates.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 12/2100Z 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW48H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED