|Tropical Depression Nine-E||Winds: 30 kt|
|Pressure: 1005 mbar|
|Advisory 2 / 8:00 AM PDT Monday, August 12, 2019|
Nine-E looks a little better organized this morning, with a deeper and more robust area of convection as observed on infrared satellite imagery. Enhanced upper-level northeasterly flow has displaced the convection slightly west of the center of circulation, though the system has become a bit better stacked in the last few hours. SAB and TAFB assessed T2.0/30kt on their last cycle, while UW-CIMSS ADT is slightly higher at T2.5/35kt though raw values have dropped lower. An ASCAT-B pass at 0500z retrieved only one grid cell of winds reaching at least 30 kt amid a tight region of 20 kt winds. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains at 30 kt.
Conditions remain somewhat favorable for intensification during the next day with Nine-E traversing warm ocean waters within a moist environment; the main inhibiting factor for Nine-E appears to be 10-15 kt northeasterly wind shear which has caused a slightly exposed center of circulation this morning. Sea surface temperatures are expected to fall below 26C after about 24 hours. Most of the guidance show progressive weakening throughout the forecast window probably as an indication of area-averaged shear values of 15-20 kt. However, the favorable parameters give Nine-E some opportunity to strengthen and possibly reach tropical storm intensity before it reaches the eastern Pacific thermocline, and this brief possibility is reflected in the updated intensity forecast.
Ridging over the southwestern United States should keep Nine-E on a west-northwestward track, which the usual westerly curve occurring over time as the system weakens.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 12/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW96H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED