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Tropical Depression Nine-E Winds: 30 kt
Pressure: 1006 mbar
Advisory 1 / 8:00 PM PDT Sunday, August 11, 2019

A new tropical depression has formed in the East Pacific. Satellite imagery shows a compact cyclone, with deep convection focused near the center but little in the way of spiral banding. A 1716z ASCAT pass indicated that the system had an open circulation, and thus advisories were not initiated at 21z despite its appearance on conventional satellite imagery. Since that time, the persistence and consolidated of thunderstorm activity suggests that a closed low has formed, thus leading to the designation of Tropical Depression Nine-E with an initial intensity of 30kt.

The environment Nine-E finds itself in currently is actually quite conducive for organization, with upper-level winds around or less than 10kt, ocean temperatures around 29C, and mid-level relative humidity values around 70 percent. With time, more specifically after 24 hours, ocean temperatures and mid-level relative humidity values are expected to become unfavorable for intensification. Wind shear will too reach that hostile range by day 4. Given the aforementioned conditions, combined with the fact that most models do not even register Nine-E as a tropical cyclone, significant development is not expected, although it is expected to become a minimal tropical storm (Henriette) at the current time. Degeneration is expected about 2 days from now, with dissipation 2 days after that.

An established mid-level ridge north of the tropical depression should keep the storm on a west-northwest heading through the entirety of its lifespan. There is good model agreement regarding this solution, and thus a lengthy paragraph on track uncertainties is not necessary at this time.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 12/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH

24H 13/0000Z 35 KT 40 MPH

36H 13/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH

48H 14/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 15/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster TAWX14
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