|Tropical Depression Gil||Winds: 30 kt|
|Pressure: 1009 mbar|
|Advisory 3 / 2:00 AM PDT Sunday, August 4, 2019|
Gil continues to be a borderline tropical cyclone. On infrared satellite imagery, the storm left much of its deep convection behind as a result of northwesterly shear, allowing it to be picked up in the mid-level flow. A little bit of new convection has recently fired just east of the center, though. A 0604z ASCAT-B pass shows Gil's low-level circulation as weak, broad, and borderline classifiable. The highest winds picked up are only around 25kt. Dvorak classifications have come in at T1.5/25kt from SAB and T2.5/35kt from TAFB, with a weakening trend. As a result, Gil has been downgraded to a tropical depression with an initial intensity of 30kt.
Wind shear continues to be high, near 20kt, as a result of the influence of an upper-level trough. Earlier today, Gil was in the sweet spot at the base of the trough with relatively weaker shear and enhanced outflow, which likely brought the storm to life, but it is quickly moving out of this region into higher upper-level winds associated with this trough. Shear is forecast to increase slowly and with mid-level humidity expected to fall, Gil is headed to its demise. Sea surface temperatures near 28C falling to 27C by tomorrow will be about the only thing to keep Gil from failing to produce convection and remain a tropical cyclone. Nonetheless, degeneration into a remnant low is likely probably sometime today or early tomorrow at the latest, with dissipation occurring shortly thereafter.
Gil is currently tracking westward and it should continue to do so for the rest of its life as a tropical cyclone under the influence of mid-level ridging to its north. After the depression becomes a remnant low, it will turn toward the west-southwest as it is steered by low-level trade flow.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 05/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW36H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED