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Tropical Storm Gil Winds: 35 kt
Pressure: 1007 mbar
Advisory 2 / 8:00 PM PDT Saturday, August 3, 2019

Gil has not become any better organized this evening, and in fact, it is questionable whether we have a tropical cyclone on our hands tonight. The tight low-level swirl I was tracking earlier turned out to be just a mesovortex within a broader gyre. That gyre appears increasingly elongated in recent visible imagery. Deep convection continues to build, but this thunderstorm activity is relegated almost entirely to the east of Gil's center. The initial intensity remains 35kt based primarily on the earlier ASCAT pass.

Upper-level winds over 20kt are expected to persist for the next few days. Given decreasing mid-level relative humidity values and ocean temperatures, Gil is not expected to become any better organized and should instead degenerate to a remnant low about 24 hours from now. Dissipation is expected in about 2 days, although this could occur sooner if satellite trends are verified by scatterometer data.

The primary steering mechanism for the remainder of Gil's life will be a strong mid-level ridge to the cyclone's north. This ridge should cause a westward motion that trends to west-southwest or even southwest after tomorrow.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 35 KT 40 MPH

12H 04/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH

24H 05/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

36H 05/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster TAWX21
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