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Tropical Storm Gil Winds: 35 kt
Pressure: 1007 mbar
Advisory 1 / Special: 3:30 PM PDT Saturday, August 3, 2019

Yet another poorly organized tropical cyclone has formed in the East Pacific. The disturbance has been sporting a closed center all day, but this center was far removed from any convection. However, in more recent hours, deep thunderstorm activity has built east of the circulation, nearly covering the feature now. An ASCAT pass from earlier this afternoon revealed peak winds of 33kt. Accounting for the low bias of the instrument, as well as the increase in organization since that time, the initial intensity has been set to 35kt and Tropical Storm Gil has been designated.

There is not much going the direction of Gil over the next few days. Ignoring the fact that the ASCAT pass showed a circulation that is barely closed and could open up at any time, upper-level winds are already hostile and are forecast to remain so. In addition, although ocean temperatures are sufficient for intensification, mid-level relative humidity values are expected to become increasingly unfavorable. Thus, Gil is not expected to strengthen and in fact may degenerate within 36 hours. Dissipation is expected in about 2 days.

Mid-level ridging is steering Gil toward the west. Over the next 2 days, the combination of this ridge, as well as low-level easterly trade winds, should force Gil on a west to southwest trajectory.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 35 KT 40 MPH

12H 04/0600Z 35 KT 40 MPH

24H 04/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH

36H 05/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster TAWX21
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