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Tropical Storm Flossie Winds: 55 kt
Pressure: 996 mbar
Advisory 6 / 2:00 AM PDT Tuesday, July 30, 2019

Flossie has a central dense overcast is in the works on infrared satellite imagery, which appears to be counter to the more sheared look the storm had earlier. Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB came in at T3.5/55kt at 06z. Given the slight improvement in appearance, Flossie's initial intensity has been raised to match these estimates.

Flossie will continue to have warm sea surface temperatures of 28-29C to work with for the next two days before they decrease to a more marginally supportive 26-27C thereafter. Mid-level humidity values are forecast to remain high for the storm as well. The main problem Flossie will have preventing strengthening is the shear that it is currently dealing with. Given the improvements it currently appears to be making, Flossie may be able to consolidate an inner core, which would allow for more rapid strengthening in the near future, perhaps by tomorrow. But, Flossie will have to compete with increasing northerly upper-level winds in around 36 hours. If the storm can consolidate its core quickly and begin strengthening it may have a better chance at faring these conditions. By about day 3 though, while shear has the potential to let up a bit, waters will be cooler and the surrounding environment will be drier, resulting in steady weakening.

Flossie is expected to continue moving generally westward over the next 24 hours or so under the influence of strong mid-level ridging. The ridge will shift eastward and allow the storm to gain latitude, tracking west-northwestward for a few days, before further ridging near Hawaii builds back in, pushing the storm near due westward yet again around day 4-5.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 55 KT 65 MPH

12H 30/1800Z 65 KT 75 MPH

24H 31/0600Z 75 KT 85 MPH

36H 31/1800Z 95 KT 110 MPH

48H 01/0600Z 90 KT 105 MPH

72H 02/0600Z 85 KT 100 MPH

96H 03/0600Z 80 KT 90 MPH

120H 04/0600Z 70 KT 80 MPH

Forecaster Kalassak
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