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Tropical Depression Flossie Winds: 30 kt
Pressure: 1009 mbar
Advisory 29 / 2:00 PM PDT Sunday, August 3, 2019

Flossie is likely on its final advisory as a tropical cyclone. The system's associated deep convection has become even less organized and even further removed from the center since this morning, the embodiment of very strong upper-level winds nearby. Satellite intensity estimates support a downgrade to tropical depression status at this time. No further organization is expected as wind shear continues to increase, despite the fact that mid-level relative humidity values and ocean temperatures will actually rise over the next 48 hours. Thus, degeneration is expected in about 12 hours, with dissipation occurring in about 2 days.

Flossie is moving west or even a little south of west. This is due to stout mid-level ridging north of the cyclone in combination with brisk low-level easterly trade winds. On that trajectory, Flossie is expected to pass near or over Hawaii in about 36 hours, albeit as a post-tropical cyclone. Regardless, enhanced rainfall and surf is expected.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 05/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

24H 05/1800Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

36H 06/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster TAWX21
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