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Tropical Storm Flossie Winds: 35 kt
Pressure: 1007 mbar
Advisory 27 / 8:00 AM PDT Sunday, August 4, 2019

Flossie has shown some signs of increased degradation since the last advisory. The sheared convective mass is no longer as uniform as it was previously, with an associated mid-level circulation center abating towards the east as upper-level flow worsens and wind shear increases above 20 kt. A blend of infrared satellite intensity estimates suggest an intensity of about 30 kt, but given the somewhat expansive field of gales observed in the latest scatterometer data, I have kept the current intensity at 35 kt.

With upper-level conditions becoming increasingly hostile, it won't be long before Flossie cannot generate any sort of organized convection to maintain its tropical cyclone classification. Wind shear magnitudes should increase to 25 kt by the end of today and should be at or above 35 kt by tomorrow night. Flossie is expected to transition into a remnant low later today. We'll probably see the circulation slowly diffuse over the next three days while intermittent bursts of convection occur over a region of decent marine instability. A track towards the west-northwest should continue for another day or two before the remnants of Flossie intercept a trough near Hawaii and curve northward. If the system is shallower, it may take a more westward track and perhaps pass near or over some of the Hawaiian islands.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 35 KT 40 MPH

12H 05/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

24H 05/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

36H 06/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 06/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster TheAustinMan
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