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Tropical Storm Flossie Winds: 35 kt
Pressure: 1005 mbar
Advisory 27 / 2:00 AM PDT Sunday, August 4, 2019

Flossie retains a similar structure to last night on infrared satellite imagery. Deep convection continues to creep behind the low-level circulation center as it is sheared eastward. An ASCAT-C pass at 0713z shows that Flossie retains a small area of gale force winds. As a result, its initial intensity is held once again at 35kt.

Wind shear is expected to increase dramatically over the course of the next 36 hours or so, which should result in Flossie's degeneration into a remnant low in short order. Sea surface temperatures will remain marginal and mid-level humidity values will not be able to support the storm for much longer in the face of increasing shear. Dissipation is likely by day 4 or 5.

Flossie continues to track westward under the influence of mid-level ridging to its north. In around 48 hours, Flossie should turn toward the northwest as a mid-level trough induces a weakness in the ridge.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 35 KT 40 MPH

12H 04/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH

24H 05/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

36H 05/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 06/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 07/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Kalassak
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