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Tropical Storm Flossie Winds: 35 kt
Pressure: 1005 mbar
Advisory 26 / 8:00 PM PDT Saturday, August 3, 2019

Flossie has not changed dramatically this evening. The system continues to have an exposed low-level circulation, though deep convection has fired closer to this center over the past few hours. Given the lack of movement in organization, I have decided to maintain an initial intensity of 35kt. Upper-level winds are likely to cause degeneration within 36 hours despite adequate mid-level relative humidity values, and dissipation is likely by the end of the forecast period.

Flossie is moving westward, steered by the same mid-level ridge to its north. Prior to reaching the Big Island of Hawaii in about 48 hours, Flossie or its remnants are expected to be redirected northward by a mid-level trough impinging from the west.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 35 KT 40 MPH

12H 04/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH

24H 05/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH

36H 05/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 06/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 07/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster TAWX14
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