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Tropical Storm Flossie Winds: 35 kt
Pressure: 1005 mbar
Advisory 25 / 2:00 PM PDT Saturday, August 3, 2019

Flossie has changed little in organization this afternoon, with an exposed low-level circulation and ragged, deep convection focused east of that feature. Satellite intensity estimates have fallen since earlier and now support an initial intensity of 35kt. Wind shear is expected to continue increasing over the next few days while ocean temperatures remain cool. Thus, continued weakening is expected and Flossie is forecast to become a remnant low about 36 hours from now, although this could occur sooner if the marginal mid-level relative humidity values are not able to sustain intermittent convective bursts.

The same mid-level ridge we have discussed in depth for over a week now continues to steer Flossie on a west to west-northwest track. After 48 hours, a mid-level trough impinging from the west will turn the tropical cyclone or its remnants toward the north, causing it to avoid Hawaii.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 35 KT 40 MPH

12H 04/0600Z 35 KT 40 MPH

24H 04/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH

36H 05/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 05/1800Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 06/1800Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 07/1800Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Kalassak
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