|Tropical Storm Flossie||Winds: 40 kt|
|Pressure: 1002 mbar|
|Advisory 24 / 8:00 AM PDT Saturday, August 3, 2019|
Flossie does not look well-organized this morning, and the convective character is largely wispy. Convection has remained displaced to the east and northeast of the low-level center, which is positioned beneath a band of westward-progressing cirrus. Two high-resolution microwave images from around 1045z show that the surface circulation is sailing solo now with the deep convection all tied up to an eastern rainband. A small area of convection has attempted to initiate over the center but to no substantial avail. Subjective satellite intensity estimates included T3.5/45kt from PGTW and PHFO, and T2.5/35kt from SAB. Automated estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT noted a T2.3/33kt intensity. A blend of these estimates yields a current intensity estimate of 40 kt, in good agreement with the 0627z ASCAT-B scatterometer data.
Although Flossie has spent much of its life fooling us with its shenanigans, the window of opportunity for additional tomfoolery is closing. Wind shear values are expected to reach a local minimum this afternoon with deep-layer shear magnitudes estimated around 10-20 kt. Afterwards, an increase in westerly flow at 300 hPa from the subtropical jet is expected to impinge on the circulation and start displacing convection farther to the east more than it currently is. Although mid-level relative humidity and sea surface temperature indices do so some sign of recovering, the shear will likely relegate the circulation to intermittent bursts of convection much like Erick is currently facing right now. This will result in an extended weakening phase for the remainder of the forecast.
Owing to the subtropical ridge to its north, Flossie is tracking steadily towards the west-northwest. A retrograding cut-off low and deep-layer steering trough over the central north Pacific is expected to cause Flossie and its likely remnants to stream northwards after day 3. Hawaii remains in the path of plausible tracks, but the storm will likely be quite weak by the time it makes it close to the islands.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 03/1200Z 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1200Z 25 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1200Z 25 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW120H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED