|Tropical Storm Flossie||Winds: 40 kt|
|Pressure: 1000 mbar|
|Advisory 23 / 2:00 AM PDT Saturday, August 3, 2019|
Flossie continues to weaken this morning. Convection appears displaced northeast of the low-level circulation on infrared satellite imagery. A 0625z ASCAT-C pass shows an elongating low-level circulation with maximum winds of around 40kt. Dvorak satellite classifications came in at T3.0/45kt from PGTW and PHFO, while SAB has dropped to T2.5/35kt. Based mostly on the scatterometer data, Flossie's initial intensity has been lowered to 40kt.
A combination of marginal sea surface temperatures, mid-level humidity values, and moderate to high shear continue to weaken Flossie. Over the next 24 hours, not much is expected to change in terms of the storm's environment, so continued weakening is expected. Beyond this, shear should increase significantly, which should make Flossie post-tropical around day 2.
Flossie continues to track generally westward. Mid-level ridging will keep Flossie on this track for the next two days or so before a mid-level trough north of the Hawaiian Islands induces a weakness in the ridge which will cause the storm to turn toward the northwest before it is able to pass over the Hawaiian Islands.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0900Z 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/0600Z 25 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW120H 08/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW