Tropical Storm Flossie Winds: 45 kt
Pressure: 997 mbar
Advisory 22 / 8:00 PM PDT Friday, August 2, 2019

Flossie is rapidly weakening this evening. Associated deep convection has been destroyed by the combination of high wind shear and cold ocean temperatures, leaving a low-level circulation that is only obscured on conventional satellite by upper-level outflow. A combination of current intensity estimates supports lowering the initial intensity to 45kt, though I would not be surprised if this was a generous figure. Over the coming days, ocean temperatures are expected to remain cold while upper-level winds steadily increase. This should result in degeneration about 72 hours from now, although this could occur sooner if the relatively favorable mid-level relative humidity values are not able to sustain intermittent convective bursts.

The same mid-level ridge that has steered Erick and Flossie over the past few days will continue to force the cyclone on a west to west-northwest track through the next 48 hours. After that, a mid-level trough near the Hawaiian Islands will provide an opening for Flossie or its remnants to curve toward the north, avoiding the Aloha state.


INIT 03/0300Z 45 KT 50 MPH

12H 03/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH

24H 04/0000Z 35 KT 40 MPH

36H 04/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH

48H 05/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH

72H 06/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 07/0000Z 25 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 08/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster TAWX14
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