Tropical Storm Flossie Winds: 55 kt
Pressure: 993 mbar
Advisory 21 / 2:00 PM PDT Friday, August 2, 2019

Flossie's second breath is over. Satellite animations show that the system has become less organized today, with the re-collapse of its inner core and a degradation in the convective organization. A blend of ASCAT and satellite intensity estimates supports lowering the initial intensity to 55kt, making Flossie a tropical storm once again. Upper-level winds are in the process of increasing, while mid-level relative humidity values are largely unchanged and ocean temperatures are falling. Thus, continued weakening is expected and degeneration is expected about 96 hours from now.

A stout mid-level ridge exists across the subtropical Pacific. This ridge will force Flossie on a west-northwest track for the next 3 days. After that, the influence of a mid-level trough near the Hawaiian Islands should cause Flossie to curve toward the north. Earlier models which continued to indicate a potential Hawaii impact have shifted northward with the rest of the suite, increasing confidence that the tropical storm will remain away from land through the forecast period.


INIT 02/2100Z 55 KT 65 MPH

12H 03/0600Z 50 KT 60 MPH

24H 03/1800Z 45 KT 50 MPH

36H 04/0600Z 40 KT 45 MPH

48H 04/1800Z 35 KT 40 MPH

72H 05/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH

96H 06/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 07/1800Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster TAWX14
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