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Tropical Storm Flossie Winds: 55 kt
Pressure: 993 mbar
Advisory 21 / 2:00 PM PDT Friday, August 2, 2019

Flossie's second breath is over. Satellite animations show that the system has become less organized today, with the re-collapse of its inner core and a degradation in the convective organization. A blend of ASCAT and satellite intensity estimates supports lowering the initial intensity to 55kt, making Flossie a tropical storm once again. Upper-level winds are in the process of increasing, while mid-level relative humidity values are largely unchanged and ocean temperatures are falling. Thus, continued weakening is expected and degeneration is expected about 96 hours from now.

A stout mid-level ridge exists across the subtropical Pacific. This ridge will force Flossie on a west-northwest track for the next 3 days. After that, the influence of a mid-level trough near the Hawaiian Islands should cause Flossie to curve toward the north. Earlier models which continued to indicate a potential Hawaii impact have shifted northward with the rest of the suite, increasing confidence that the tropical storm will remain away from land through the forecast period.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 55 KT 65 MPH

12H 03/0600Z 50 KT 60 MPH

24H 03/1800Z 45 KT 50 MPH

36H 04/0600Z 40 KT 45 MPH

48H 04/1800Z 35 KT 40 MPH

72H 05/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH

96H 06/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 07/1800Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster TAWX14
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