|Hurricane Flossie||Winds: 65 kt|
|Pressure: 989 mbar|
|Advisory 20 / 8:00 AM PDT Friday, August 2, 2019|
With deep convection forming a bubble against some upper-level northwesterlies from a subtropical jet, Flossie has been persisting well this morning. Infrared imagery shows a central dense overcast that has been developing against the shear direction, though Flossie's southern semicircle appears slightly frayed. There has been no new microwave data to peer into the internal structure of Flossie, though the infrared pictures suggest the center of circulation is likely a bit better situated under convection compared to the previous advisory. SAB increased to T3.5/55kt while TAFB remained at T4.0/65kt. Overall, not a whole lot has changed since the last advisory so the intensity remains at 65 kt.
Flossie is expected to be slightly better situated under an upper-level anticyclone today, which will curtail some of the unfavorable 300hPa winds it has been dealing with throughout much of its recent history. However, these winds are not expected to abate entirely, and thus wind shear is expected to remain in the 15-20 kt range for the next day or so. During this timeframe of opportunity, other parameters remain generally marginal, with sea surface temperatures hovering around 26-27C and relative humidity percentages recovering a little bit into the low 60s. The combination of these factors suggest that intensification is unlikely, and in fact the vast majority of guidance indicates extended weakening. Some marginal intensification is possible today, but I've elected to no longer depict strengthening in the forecast. Deep-layer shear ramps up considerably in about 36 hours, after which weakening will likely be accelerated.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW120H 07/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW