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Tropical Depression Seven-E Winds: 30 kt
Pressure: 1007 mbar
Advisory 2 / 8:00 PM PDT Sunday, July 28, 2019

Seven-E has become less organized since earlier, with a general decrease in convective intensity and cohesiveness. Satellite intensity estimates ranged from T2.0/30kt from SAB, to T3.5/35kt from TAFB, to T2.6/37kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. Given its appearance, and in the absence of ASCAT, I have decided to maintain Seven-E as a 30kt tropical depression for this advisory.

Although ocean temperatures are warm, the environment is very moist, and upper-level winds are light, Seven-E is moving at over 15kt. This is likely to hamper organization over the next day or so. Thereafter, the culmination of the above factors should result in quick development, with the good possibility for rapid intensification as indicated by several models, including the usually-reliable HWRF which shows a Category 4 hurricane. A leveling off in strength and some weakening is expected on days 4 and 5 as an upper-level trough impinges on the storm from the north, though a slight change in timing could potentially result in a more favorable interaction that aids Seven-E rather than hinders it. The updated forecast is largely an update to the previous one, except to bring the peak intensity forward to 72 hours.

Seven-E is moving west and will move in a general westward direction for the next 2 days thanks to strong mid-level ridging to the storm's north. A weakness in the ridge should allow the system to curve west-northwest on days 4 and 5. This is a high confidence forecast.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 29/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH

24H 30/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH

36H 30/1200Z 50 KT 60 MPH

48H 31/0000Z 65 KT 75 MPH

72H 01/0000Z 95 KT 110 MPH

96H 02/0000Z 90 KT 105 MPH

120H 03/0000Z 85 KT 100 MPH

Forecaster TAWX14
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