|Hurricane Flossie||Winds: 65 kt|
|Pressure: 989 mbar|
|Advisory 19 / 2:00 AM PDT Friday, August 2, 2019|
Shear today was much lower than it was forecast yesterday, which has led Flossie to be stronger now than forecast earlier yesterday. This morning, Flossie maintains much the same appearance that it had last night. An SSMIS microwave pass from early in the cycle (0343z) shows that the structure noted in the last advisory remains mostly unchanged, with maybe a bit of banding forming on the east side of storm in addition to the eyewall. Infrared satellite imagery suggests that this structure has maintained itself as well through to advisory time now. Current intensity values at 06z range from T3.0/45kt from SAB to T4.0/65kt from TAFB. Given the similar structure to the last advisory, I will side with TAFB and maintain Flossie's intensity at 65kt.
Wind shear is currently moderate and is forecast to drop just a little for the next 36 to 48 hours before it increases significantly. Sea surface temperatures and mid-level humidity values will remain much the same over the next few days and this will continue to allow for a little intensification over the next two days before strong shear should induce rapid weakening. Flossie should become post-tropical around day 4 or maybe a bit earlier, as it does not have the more supportive sea surface temperatures that Erick does.
Flossie continues to track west-northwest and it should continue to do so for the next three days under the influence of a mid-level ridge. A mid-level trough northwest of the Hawaiian Islands will allow for Flossie to move northward into a weakening in the ridge and get caught in the subtropical jet, just as the weakening storm approaches the islands. Just beyond the end of the forecast period, the remnants of Flossie and the mid-level energy from Erick may contribute some tropical characteristics to a developing mid-latitude system.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0900Z 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW120H 07/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW