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Hurricane Flossie Winds: 65 kt
Pressure: 989 mbar
Advisory 18 / 8:00 PM PDT Thursday, August 1, 2019

Flossie has regained hurricane strength this evening. Visible imagery indicates that the eye feature evident around the time of the previous advisory persisted most of the afternoon, though it has been obscured by building convection in more recent frames. A low-level microwave pass around 0z indicated that half an eyewall had reformed. In addition, upper-level outflow is expanding to the west some, an indication that the advertised, slight decrease in wind shear has seemingly materialized. Satellite intensity estimates were T2.5/35kt from SAB but T4.0/65kt from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT. Given the changes in the internal structure and Flossie's presentation in visible satellite, the estimate from SAB is clearly an outlier. I have opted to side with TAFB and CIMSS in assigning an initial intensity of 65kt.

SHIPS analyzes wind shear under 15kt and expects similar values to persist for the next 18 hours. Given marginal water temperatures of 26-27C and marginal mid-level relative humidity values in the mid-50s percent, the opportunity for some slight intensification will persist, and the updated forecast is similar to previous ones. After 24 hours, a sharp increase in upper-level winds will mark an end to Flossie. Degeneration has been moved forward to day 4 in this advisory.

Flossie is moving west-northwest and this motion will continue for about 72 more hours. After that, a broad but weak mid-level trough west of Hawaii will provide an opening for Flossie to curve northward, likely prior to the storm reaching the Hawaiian Islands.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 65 KT 75 MPH

12H 02/1200Z 70 KT 80 MPH

24H 03/0000Z 70 KT 80 MPH

36H 03/1200Z 60 KT 70 MPH

48H 04/0000Z 55 KT 65 MPH

72H 05/0000Z 45 KT 50 MPH

96H 06/0000Z 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 07/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster TAWX14
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