|Tropical Storm Flossie||Winds: 50 kt|
|Pressure: 997 mbar|
|Advisory 15 / 2:00 AM PDT Thursday, August 1, 2019|
Flossie is not faring as well this morning as it was last night. Convection is more disorganized on infrared satellite imagery and it appears displaced further southeast of the low-level circulation once again. Dvorak current intensity estimates at 06z from SAB and TAFB both agree that Flossie is T3.5/55kt still, but with the decrease in organization, Flossie has been lowered to 50kt.
Strong shear continues to affect Flossie. This shear is expected to remain in place for the next 12 to 18 hours before it decreases and becomes more manageable during days 2 and 3 before increasing irreparably. Unfortunately for Flossie, sea surface temperatures will be near 27C and lowering by the time the shear lets up and mid-level humidity will be only marginally supportive. Nonetheless, a little bit of intensification is expected to occur within these marginal conditions before shear increases once again, resulting in weakening. Weakening beyond day 3 should be fairly quick as shear will increase beyond 20kt. As a result, the day 4 and 5 intensities have been adjusted downward. Flossie will be losing tropical characteristics toward the end of the forecast period.
Flossie has tracked generally west-northwestward this morning. This motion is expected to change little for the next several days under the influence of broad mid-level ridging. Toward the end of the forecast period, beyond day 4, as the storm approaches the Hawaiian Islands as a weak tropical storm, it may begin to turn northward under the influence of a mid-level trough.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0900Z 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 45 KT 50 MPH120H 06/0600Z 35 KT 40 MPH