|Tropical Storm Flossie||Winds: 55 kt|
|Pressure: 994 mbar|
|Advisory 14 / 8:00 PM PDT Wednesday, July 31, 2019|
Flossie, for as much of a mess this cyclone has turned out to be, has organized slightly this evening. Convection, though still positioned east of the low-level circulation, is closer and deeper compared to earlier. Unfortunately, this has not been sufficient to stop satellite intensity estimates from falling, and consensus of those estimates yields an initial intensity of 55kt.
The intensity forecast remains extremely complicated. Upper-level winds on the order of 20kt are currently affecting Flossie, and similar values should remain for the next 18 hours or so. Beyond that time, wind shear may fall slightly, albeit never to completely favorable levels. Given ocean temperatures between 26-27C and generally conducive mid-level relative humidity values, there is a narrow window where some re-intensification may occur between days 2 and 3, although models are still very much in disagreement regarding this possibility. By the end of the period, though, a second increase in upper-level winds should substantially weaken Flossie.
The tropical storm is moving westward, a west to west-northwest motion will continue through the entire forecast period. This is courtesy of a persistent, strong, and broad mid-level ridge that dominates the subtropical Pacific. The trajectory of Flossie is one that may bring the storm into the Hawaiian Islands about 5 days from now, though luckily it would be weakening quickly by that time.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0300Z 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 55 KT 65 MPH120H 06/0000Z 45 KT 50 MPH