|Tropical Depression Seven-E||Winds: 30 kt|
|Pressure: 1007 mbar|
|Advisory 1 / 2:00 PM PDT Sunday, July 28, 2019|
A new tropical depression has formed in the eastern Pacific. Satellite imagery shows that the system is still very much in its formative stage, with the convective appearance more resembling a tropical wave than an organized tropical cyclone. Nonetheless, an ASCAT-C pass showed a circulation that is sufficient enough for designation, along with maximum winds near 30kt. That is the initial intensity used for this advisory.
The depression is embedded within a favorable environment for intensification, with wind shear expected to remain near or under 10kt for the next 4 days or so; ocean temperatures will remain sufficiently warm and mid-level relative humidity values will remain adequately high for about that long too. Despite this, there is large variance in intensity forecasts. The LGEM forecasts a moderate tropical storm. The SHIPS and GFS indicate a moderate Category 1 hurricane. The ECMWF depicts a Category 2 hurricane, while the HWRF is indicating potential for a Category 4. Given the values above, it would make sense to lean toward the higher model solutions. However, one potential negating factor is the passage of a convectively-suppressed kelvin wave that models may not be accurately keying in on. Given the wide range, I have elected to forecast a little more than a down-the-middle solution for now.
Persistent and strong mid-level ridging north of Seven-E should force the cyclone on a west or slightly north of west motion for the next 72 hours. On days 4 and 5, a break in the ridge may allow the cyclone to move more west-northwest. There is good agreement in this solution.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 28/2100Z 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 95 KT 110 MPH120H 02/1800Z 90 KT 105 MPH