|Hurricane Erick||Winds: 65 kt|
|Pressure: 992 mbar|
|Advisory 9 / 8:00 AM PDT Monday, July 29, 2019|
Erick has been firing deep convection over the last several hours as it tries to solidify its central dense overcast, though convection has been developing in a somewhat oblique manner relative to the center of circulation. Despite a frankly marginal showing on ASCAT-C scatterometer data at 0555z, microwave data shows the storm as been organizing at a steady clip internally. A 1201z GMI pass showed a ragged microwave eye which has largely come into focus during the last eight hours, though a 1235z SSMI pass indicated it was open to the northwest. UW-CIMSS ADT is registering T4.0/65kt with SAB now in agreement with those values. Unfortunately, ADT seems to be erroneously positioned and would likely be higher if adjusted. TAFB remained at T3.5/55kt, though they might have been also been misled by a psuedo cloud center further south according to their remarks. Given the internal improvements since the last advisory, Erick has been upgraded to a 65 kt hurricane, ending the short streak of rather unremarkable systems in the Eastern Pacific.
Even with the southward dip in Erick's motion yesterday, the guidance remains in tight consensus over its future track, with an overall slight shift southward in the model spread but nothing considerable. The combination of ridging to the northeast and the eventual shallow of Erick's circulation late in the forecast is expected to result in a west-northwesterly path throughout the forecast, with the system's weakening resulting in a more westward track after day 3. The current forecast thinking indicates a track about 100-200 miles south of Hawaii on days 4-5.
The emergence of the ragged microwave eye is the latest development in the current intensification phase which began yesterday afternoon. The low-level circulation center is still trying its best to outpace the convection with a forward speed in excess of 15 kt, but for now the central dense overcast has done a respectable job keeping pace. Aside from this motion, intensification parameters are all favorable for continued intensification, and perhaps rapid intensification, over the next two days. If we're going to see rapid intensification, it's going to happen either today or tomorrow. Afterwards, a combination of declining moisture values and increasing shear should effectively slam the door in Erick's face, and we may witness equally impressive weakening after day 3. In general, the forecast philosophy remains unchanged from preceding advisories.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 29/1500Z 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 45 KT 50 MPH120H 03/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH