|Tropical Storm Erick||Winds: 60 kt|
|Pressure: 995 mbar|
|Advisory 8 / 2:00 AM PDT Monday, July 29, 2019|
Erick continues to organize this morning, although the deep convection in the central dense overcast had a bit of a lapse, further convection appears to be trying to regenerate once again over the past hour or so. A 0628z microwave pass shows that a banding eye structure continues to develop within the storm. An ASCAT-C pass at 0555z shows only a small area in the northeast quadrant with winds around 50 kt. Dvorak intensity estimates remain T3.5/55kt from SAB and TAFB, while ADT comes in higher at T4.0/65kt. I would be tempted to side with ADT, but with the poor showing on the scatterometer data Erick's initial intensity is set at 60 kt this advisory as a blend of the Dvorak intensity estimates.
Erick continues on a westward track this morning. This motion is expected to continue for the next 18 hours or so as mid-level ridging keeps the storm from gaining any latitude. As a weakness develops in the ridge, Erick will turn more to the west-northwest beginning tomorrow for about two days until the storm's weakening causes it to become embedded in the low-level easterly trade winds and the storm turns toward the west, passing south of Hawaii as a decaying tropical storm or depression.
Due to the favorable location of an upper-level anticyclone, Erick is currently under very low wind shear. This low shear environment should persist for the next 48 hours or so before they increase significantly by day 3. Sea surface temperatures are currently sitting around 28C, and they are only expected to decrease slowly and fluctuate to around 27C throughout the next five days at least, providing an ample energy source and instability, which will also keep mid-level humidity values from being a significant issue in the short term and they shouldn't be outright hostile end of the forecast period. Erick will have a very supportive environment for the next 48 hours or so before wind shear begins to affect the system and induce weakening. By that point, ocean temperatures and mid-level moisture will not be as supportive for the storm and will not be able to keep the storm from weakening to dissipation. With the storm's current consolidation its intensification rate has been adjusted upward a bit through the next two days.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0900Z 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 55 KT 65 MPH120H 03/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH