|Tropical Storm Erick||Winds: 35 kt|
|Pressure: 1006 mbar|
|Advisory 4 / 2:00 AM PDT Sunday, July 28, 2019|
Erick's infrared satellite representation has become a bit more ragged since the last advisory. Aside from that, much remains basically the same. The spiral banding noted in the previous advisory continues to be present. SAB and TAFB remain at T2.0/30kt at 06z. An ASCAT-C pass from 0615z reveals that the circulation has deteriorated a bit, with winds lighter, especially in the southwest quadrant where the circulation is still connected to the monsoon trough. Nonetheless the overall situation remains the same, so the initial intensity for this advisory remains 35 kt.
The storm continues to track generally westward. It should gain latitude slowly as it tracks toward the west-northwest guided by mid-level ridging to its north and northeast. Around day 4, weakening of the system combined with the lifting of a mid-upper trough near the Hawaiian Islands will result in mid-level ridging building westward closer to Erick, steering the system on a more due west track.
Erick will have a generally favorable environment to work with for the next few days, as sea surface temperatures currently sit around 28C. It will have these warm waters to work with until around 3 days from now, when temperatures will begin to decrease to a more marginal 26-27C. Mid-level humidity values should remain high, contributing to a favorable environment, until around day 3 to 4, where as the sea surface temperatures decrease, the moisture availability will decrease significantly with the lesser instability. Erick is also in an environment of low shear and good outflow. This should remain the case until, again, around the same time period of day 3 to 4, when the storm will enter a region of unfavorable upper level winds and weakening should quickly ensue. For now, Erick is expected to intensify steadily until it can consolidate an inner core, which should happen over the course of the day today. Once this occurs, faster strengthening is expected. The storm will likely peak around day 3 before the unfavorable environmental conditions result in quick weakening.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0900Z 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 80 KT 90 MPH120H 02/0600Z 50 KT 60 MPH