|Tropical Depression Erick||Winds: 30 kt|
|Pressure: 1008 mbar|
|Advisory 30 / 2:00 PM PDT Saturday, August 3, 2019|
Erick is on its last leg this afternoon. Organized convection has not persisted near the exposed low-level circulation over the past 9 hours. If this does not change by the time of the next advisory, Erick will likely be declared a remnant low. A blend of satellite intensity estimates supports keeping the system a tropical depression with winds of 30kt. Now that the magnitude of wind shear actually exceeds Erick's strength, it goes without saying that intensification is not forecast. Dissipation is expected about 3 days from now.
Erick is moving west-northwest, steered (as we have discussed a nauseating amount of times now) by a stout mid-level ridge across the subtropical Pacific. Some poleward motion may begin over the next few hours as Erick feels the effects of a broad mid-level trough west of Hawaii. However, a turn back toward the west is expected in 48 hours or less as the system becomes steered by low-level easterly trade winds.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 03/2100Z 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 04/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1800Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW72H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED