Tropical Depression Erick Winds: 30 kt
Pressure: 1008 mbar
Advisory 30 / 2:00 PM PDT Saturday, August 3, 2019

Erick is on its last leg this afternoon. Organized convection has not persisted near the exposed low-level circulation over the past 9 hours. If this does not change by the time of the next advisory, Erick will likely be declared a remnant low. A blend of satellite intensity estimates supports keeping the system a tropical depression with winds of 30kt. Now that the magnitude of wind shear actually exceeds Erick's strength, it goes without saying that intensification is not forecast. Dissipation is expected about 3 days from now.

Erick is moving west-northwest, steered (as we have discussed a nauseating amount of times now) by a stout mid-level ridge across the subtropical Pacific. Some poleward motion may begin over the next few hours as Erick feels the effects of a broad mid-level trough west of Hawaii. However, a turn back toward the west is expected in 48 hours or less as the system becomes steered by low-level easterly trade winds.


INIT 03/2100Z 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 04/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

24H 04/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

36H 05/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 05/1800Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster TAWX14
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