|Tropical Depression Erick||Winds: 30 kt|
|Pressure: 1006 mbar|
|Advisory 29 / 8:00 AM PDT Saturday, August 3, 2019|
Erick is likely no longer a tropical storm. The convective burst that began with the last advisory has quickly diminished, and coupled with the loosening circulation noted on ASCAT-C data, suggests that the enhanced winds that came with the convection have likely dispersed. Shortwave infrared imagery shows the low-level circulation center now distantly displaced from the center of circulation by 0.7 degrees. Classification agencies caught the tail-end of the convection and gave T2.5/35kt CI estimates with lower data-T values. UW-CIMSS ADT and in-house estimates gave values closer to T2.0/30kt when position-corrected for the latest data. Thus, the initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt, making Erick a tropical depression.
Models are generally in good agreement over Erick's future track, with an overall westward motion with a slight northwestward bend to the track over the next two days as a result of low-level weakness in the ridge to the north. Westward motion should resume after this weakness is closed up. The circulation is moving into an area with increased lapse rates, so with sea surface temperatures increasing we could see continued puffs of convection. However, with wind shear now over 40 kt and expected to hold for the next two days it's unlikely we'll see much of the organization required to sustain Erick as a tropical cyclone. Degeneration to a remnant low is depicted by tomorrow morning with dissipation shown on day 4.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 03/1500Z 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1200Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW96H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED