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Tropical Storm Erick Winds: 35 kt
Pressure: 1004 mbar
Advisory 28 / 2:00 AM PDT Saturday, August 3, 2019

Erick continues to just hang onto tropical storm status as it has generated a modest convective burst north of its low-level circulation over the past few hours. An ASCAT-C pass at 0733z shows a broad area of 30kt winds with some possibly convectively-enhanced gales and a weakening circulation. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates have all come in at T2.5/35kt from PGTW, PHFO, and SAB as of 06z. Given the broad region of valid 30kt winds from the scatterometer pass and the agreement in satellite estimates, Erick's initial intensity is held at 35kt.

Erick continues to be buffeted by strong southwesterly wind shear in the realm of 35kt. It appears that the storm is actually in a sort of local shear minimum with it having decreased in analyses since 12 to 18 hours ago, but it is forecast to rise further as the day progresses. It is possible that Erick has been able to take advantage of the slight abatement of shear and the warm sea surface temperatures near 27-28C. With the forecasted further increase in shear and slowly decreasing mid-level humidity, we can only continue to forecast transition to a post-tropical cyclone later today or early tomorrow.

Erick is tracking generally west to west-northwest currently but the storm should begin to track more northwesterly as a mid-level trough to the north of the Hawaiian Islands causes a break in the ridging. Once the system becomes post-tropical though the mid-level influence will lessen and the storm will track westerly once again under the influence of low-level easterly trades until it degenerates into an open trough by day 4.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 35 KT 40 MPH

12H 03/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH

24H 04/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

36H 04/1800Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 05/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 06/0600Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Kalassak
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