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Tropical Storm Erick Winds: 35 kt
Pressure: 1004 mbar
Advisory 27 / 8:00 PM PDT Friday, August 2, 2019

Erick has actually become better organized this evening, with an expansion of deep convection that has partially covered the low-level circulation. This is the byproduct of ocean temperatures near 27C, despite wind shear that has increased to roughly the intensity of the storm itself. In the absence of ASCAT, satellite intensity estimates are the method by which to assess Erick's strength, and those values support a continuation of 35kt as the initial intensity for this advisory.

As mentioned in the last discussion, upper-level winds and ocean temperatures are increasing in tandem. This yields a complicated forecast as far as degeneration to a remnant low is concerned. Strictly speaking, mid-level relative humidity values are forecast to fall a couple of percent over the next 18 hours. This may be the impetus needed to prohibit Erick from producing intermittent bursts of convection. On the other hand, I can envision a scenario where such bursts allow Erick to barely hang on as a tropical depression or tropical storm until dissipation in about 4 days. Given environmental parameters, I have little choice but to continue forecasting degeneration within 24 hours.

A mid-level ridge is steering Erick toward the west-northwest and will continue to do so through 24 hours. After that, the increasing influence of a mid-level trough west of the Hawaiian Islands will allow the cyclone or low to move slightly more poleward. On days 2 through 5, though, low-level easterly trade winds will send Erick or its remnants back west.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 35 KT 40 MPH

12H 03/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH

24H 04/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

36H 04/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 05/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 06/0000Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster TAWX14
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