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Tropical Storm Erick Winds: 35 kt
Pressure: 1004 mbar
Advisory 26 / 2:00 PM PDT Friday, August 2, 2019

Erick is hanging on as a tropical cyclone this afternoon, aided by adequate ocean temperatures despite incredible wind shear atop the storm. Satellite imagery indicates several small, disconnected, yet deep bursts of convection near Erick's low-level circulation, one of which has obscured the center in recent frames. Satellite intensity estimates are a consensus T2.5/35kt and support lowering the initial intensity to that strength. Both upper-level winds and ocean temperatures are expected to increase over the next 24 hours, setting up an interesting battle for exactly when degeneration a remnant low will occur. For now, degeneration is expected tomorrow morning, but it would not be totally shocking if Erick was able to hang on beyond that.

A large mid-level ridge across the subtropical Pacific continues to direct Erick on a west-northwest track, and this trajectory should continue tonight. Beginning tomorrow, though, a mid-level trough west of Hawaii should drop southward and provide Erick an opening to move slightly more poleward. On days 4 and 5, a turn toward the west is expected as the primary steering mechanism becomes the low-level easterly trade winds.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 35 KT 40 MPH

12H 03/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH

24H 03/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

36H 04/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 04/1800Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 05/1800Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 06/1800Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster TAWX14
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