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Tropical Storm Erick Winds: 45 kt
Pressure: 998 mbar
Advisory 25 / 8:00 AM PDT Friday, August 2, 2019

Erick is getting blown into smithereens. The low-level circulation center has continued tracking westward past the longitude of the Big Island and is now displaced from the former area convection by over two degrees with deep-layer shear values analyzed in exceedance of 35 kt. A new area of convection has initiated near the center of circulation due to divergent flow aloft, but likely won't last very long as an organized feature within exceptionally hostile upper-air conditions. With the exception of an elevated PGTW, all reporting subjective Dvorak agencies have current intensities of T3.0/45kt with lower data-T values. UW-CIMSS ADT has descended lower as the system becomes increasingly decoupled. I would be initially inclined to drop the intensity to 40 kt, but given low AMSU pressures and downstream effects from Mauna Loa I have only decreased the initial intensity to 45 kt.

Now a much shallower system, Erick is entrenched within easterly trades from low level ridging across 30N. This is resulting in the current west to west-northwest motion. The low-level ridging weakens slightly due to a trough on day 2, but this is only temporary as ridging rebuilds. The overall picture paints an initial track curving slightly northwest before settling back westward by day 3. The decaying tropical cyclone is slated to dissipate soon within the subtropical jet where deep-layer shear magnitudes will increase above 40 kt in a day or so. Because background environmental pressures are somewhat low, Erick will probably maintain some gustiness as a remnant low, aided somewhat by occasional disorganized convection, before tapering off after day 2.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 45 KT 50 MPH

12H 03/0000Z 35 KT 40 MPH

24H 03/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

36H 04/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 04/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 05/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 06/1200Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster TheAustinMan
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