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Tropical Storm Erick Winds: 50 kt
Pressure: 995 mbar
Advisory 24 / 2:00 AM PDT Friday, August 2, 2019

Erick's convection continues to diminish as observed on infrared satellite imagery. It has been pushed further away from the center to the northeast by strong shear and the cloud top temperatures have decreased as the convective pulse from a few hours ago fades. Dvorak estimates have fallen to a consensus 45kt with current intensity values sitting near 55kt. As Erick continues to weaken, the initial intensity has been nudged downward to 50kt.

Wind shear has increased to near 40kt which continues to take a heavy toll on Erick. Shear is expected to remain very high for the rest of the forecast period. As mentioned previously, this will continue Erick's weakening trend, but degeneration to a post-tropical cyclone may be somewhat delayed as a result of the sea surface temperatures near 28C. By the end of the forecast period, Erick should further degenerate into an open trough.

Erick continues to move west-northwest under the influence of a mid-level ridge to its northeast. By around day 2 this motion will turn more northwesterly or possibly even north as a mid-level trough creates a weakness in the ridge. It will then turn back west under the influence of the low-level trade winds as the trough weakens and lifts.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 50 KT 60 MPH

12H 02/1800Z 40 KT 50 MPH

24H 03/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH

36H 03/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 04/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 05/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 06/0600Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Kalassak
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