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Tropical Storm Erick Winds: 55 kt
Pressure: 993 mbar
Advisory 17 / 8:00 PM PDT Thursday, July 31, 2019

Erick has been through the shredder. Visible satellite imagery shows that the storm's deep convection has rapidly been whisked away to the northeast, exposing a tight low-level circulation. This is no surprise given the environment Erick finds itself in, with wind shear on the order of 35kt and forecast to increase still. A blend of satellite intensity estimates supports decreasing the initial intensity to 55kt. Rapid weakening is expected to continue as upper-level winds persist, and degeneration has been moved forward to 36 hours. One saving grace from immediate degeneration may be warming ocean temperatures which could feasibly support intermittent convective bursts near the center. Still, this will be a tall order given the magnitude of wind shear. Dissipation is expected between 4 and 5 days from now.

Erick is moving west-northwest on the southwest periphery of a stout mid-level ridge across the subtropical Pacific. By 48 hours, this motion will turn more poleward as Erick is influenced by a weak mid-level trough west of Hawaii. By day 5, a turn back toward the west may ensue as this feature loses importance and the cyclone is instead steered by low-level trade winds.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 55 KT 65 MPH

12H 02/1200Z 45 KT 55 MPH

24H 03/0000Z 35 KT 40 MPH

36H 03/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 04/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 05/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 06/0000Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster TAWX14
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