|Hurricane Erick||Winds: 70 kt|
|Pressure: 982 mbar|
|Advisory 16 / 2:00 PM PDT Thursday, July 31, 2019|
Erick is in the process of decoupling. A 1632z SSMIS microwave pass showed that the storm's deepest convection was relegated to the north of its circulation, and more recent visible imagery shows low-level cloud motions that indicate the center is not long from being exposed. A blend of current intensity estimates yields an initial intensity of 80kt. However, a blend of satellite estimates gives a lower strength of 70kt. Given that current intensity values tend to fall too slowly for rapidly-weakening cyclones, I have elected to use the average of satellite estimates and go 70kt.
Erick's days as a tropical cyclone are numbered. Wind shear has increased to over 30kt and is expected to climb further in the short term. Mid-level relative humidity values are also hovering around 50 percent, which is marginal at best for a healthy system. Thus, despite warming ocean temperatures, Erick is expected to continue rapidly weakening. Degeneration to a remnant low is expected about 48 hours from now, which is sooner than most models indicate but an expectation that accounts for biases we often see in the East Pacific in these situations. Dissipation is now expected around day 5.
The mid-level pattern consists of a ridge across the subtropical Pacific that edges outward toward Hawaii, a northeast-moving cut-off low to the northwest of this ridge, and a broad but weak trough positioned west of Hawaii. As the cut-off low exits the scene, the aforementioned ridge will extend westward, forcing Erick on a west or west-northwest trajectory for the next day. Thereafter, as Erick moves out from underneath this ridge, it should curve toward the west-northwest or northwest into the mid-level trough west of Hawaii.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 01/2100Z 70 KT 90 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1800Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW120H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED