|Hurricane Erick||Winds: 80 kt|
|Pressure: 974 mbar|
|Advisory 16 / 8:00 AM PDT Thursday, July 31, 2019|
Erick resembles a bean more than it does a conventional tropical cyclone this morning. The eastern semicircle has lost much of its organization while the western half remains a fist of cold cloud tops and transverse cirrus banding. There has been no recent high-resolution microwave data, but a coarse ATMS pass at 1119z suggested it was likely that the microwave eye observed in previous data has since dispersed, with the core convection no longer organized into consistent banding. Subjective Dvorak estimates are wide-ranging from PHFO's T4.5/77kt to PGTW's T5.5/102kt, with their data-T values similarly spread apart. A recent ASCAT-B pass at 0709z was not particularly convincing given the rather meager extent of 50 kt winds. Given the steady weakening trends and the storm's internal appearance, I've downgraded the initial intensity to 80 kt, consistent with AMSU observations from this morning.
As Erick slams into the subtropical jet, wind shear is rapidly increasing this morning, with westerly flow occurring as low as 400hPa aloft. Deep-layer shear values are currently around 25 kt and are expected to increase above 35 kt by the end of today, flirting with 40-45 kt afterwards. Coupled with a drying atmosphere, Erick will almost assuredly decouple at some point over the next two days. Erick is forecast to no longer be a hurricane by the end of the day and should be closing in on a low-end tropical storm by this time tomorrow. Guidance suggests somewhat persistent remnants, so a complete dissipation isn't explicitly depicted quite yet on this advisory.
Subtropical ridging north of Erick is keeping the storm on a westerly track, with the weakening system expected to track about 150 nautical miles south of the Big Island. On day 3, a weakness opened up by a passerby trough could result in a slight motion more towards the northwest, though Erick should be rather weak by this time and likely a remnant low.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 01/1500Z 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW120H 06/1200Z 20 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW