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Hurricane Erick Winds: 85 kt
Pressure: 970 mbar
Advisory 20 / 2:00 AM PDT Thursday, August 1, 2019

Erick's infrared satellite representation remains much the same as it did six hours ago, but perhaps a little worse off. A central dense overcast continues to obscure an eye as indicated by microwave imagery. Dvorak current intensity estimates have fallen further to T5.5/102kt from SAB, T5.0/90kt from PGTW, and T4.5/77kt from PHFO. A blend of these intensities would give an intensity of 90 kts, but with the steady weakening occurring Erick's initial intensity is lowered to 85kt.

Erick is currently dealing with moderate to strong shear which is in the process of increasing rapidly as it rapidly approaches the subtropical jet. As a result, despite slowly increasing sea surface temperatures and mid-level humidity values remaining much the same, Erick's steady weakening trend should begin to accelerate within 12 hours or so. With very high shear near 40kt in the forecast in only about 48 hours, degeneration has been moved up to day 2 as the mid-levels are expected to be displaced rather quickly once the storm begins to rapidly weaken.

Erick continues to move westerly. This motion is expected to continue as mid-level ridging keeps the storm from gaining latitude. As the storm becomes shallower it will continue generally west under the influence of low-level trade winds until around day 3 when it turns back toward the northwest under the influence of a mid-level trough.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 85 KT 100 MPH

12H 01/1800Z 70 KT 80 MPH

24H 02/0600Z 50 KT 60 MPH

36H 02/1800Z 35 KT 40 MPH

48H 03/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 04/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 05/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 06/0600Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster Kalassak
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