|Tropical Storm Erick||Winds: 35 kt|
|Pressure: 1006 mbar|
|Advisory 2 / 2:00 PM PDT Saturday, July 27, 2019|
Erick's convection has waned somewhat this afternoon following daytime heating, and the cloud envelope is rather small and limited to a region immediately over and around the center of circulation, with disorganized showers in the southern semicircle. The circulation remains elongated on a northeast to southwest axis due to the system's origins from the monsoon trough, and overall the newborn system certainly isn't high on appearances. Still, despite T2.0/30kt analyses from TAFB and SAB, an ASCAT-C scatterometer pass at 1729z showed winds of 35 kt in the northeastern quadrant. Thus, Erick remains a 35 kt tropical storm this advisory.
General environmental conditions remain favorable for intensification in the low-latitudes, though the principal detriment appears to be the continued entanglement with the monsoon trough. Mid-level relative humidity values are expected to lessen to more marginal values over the next few days, but if Erick is able to produce additional convection in the overnight hours it may be able to counteract the more subsident region given the low wind shear conditions. There remains a large spread in the intensity guidance with SHIPS backing off its prior depictions while both the GFS and ECMWF-IFS became more aggressive. An uptick in westerly shear after day 4 should weaken the system. I don't anticipate much intensification in the short-term as Erick works its way out of the ITCZ, but strengthening could occur in earnest after day 2. The intensity forecast remains higher than nearly all intensity guidance, with a peak anticipated earlier than the global guidance.
Erick continues a westerly course this afternoon which should very slowly start to pick up some latitude over the entirety of the forecast period due to a slight weakness in the subtropical ridge near Hawaii. This weakness will amplify near Hawaii around day 3 and day 4, but is not expected to be strong enough to cause any significant curvature northwards. Expansive subtropical ridging remains the dominant steering feature and models are in general agreement over the rather straightforward track. The current track forecast suggests a path south of Hawaii after day 5, but interests in the islands should monitor the system for potential impacts.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 27/2100Z 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 31/1800Z 80 KT 90 MPH120H 01/1800Z 55 KT 65 MPH