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Hurricane Erick Winds: 90 kt
Pressure: 967 mbar
Advisory 19 / 8:00 PM PDT Wednesday, July 31, 2019

Erick has not changed dramatically tonight. The convective appearance looks the same as it did at the time of the previous advisory, with a generally organized central dense overcast obscuring a symmetrical eye as seen on microwave imagery. Still, satellite intensity estimates continue to fall, sitting at a consensus T4.5/77kt. This is in contrast to current intensity values which remain elevated near 100kt. Therefore, the initial strength has only been nudged slightly downward to 90kt.

The general forecast philosophy remains the same. Upper-level winds are hovering around 15kt at the present time, but they are expected to soar to over 35kt within 24 hours. Thus, despite rising ocean temperatures and generally constant mid-level relative humidity values, Erick is expected to weaken rapidly beginning tomorrow. Degeneration is now expected about 72 hours from now.

Erick is moving toward the west, and a west to west-northwest motion will continue for the next few days unabated as mid-level ridging remains stout to the north of the cyclone. By day 5, a subtle mid-level trough will damper the southern edge of this high pressure system, allowing Erick to move more west-northwest to northwest.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 90 KT 105 MPH

12H 01/1200Z 80 KT 90 MPH

24H 02/0000Z 60 KT 70 MPH

36H 02/1200Z 50 KT 60 MPH

48H 03/0000Z 35 KT 40 MPH

72H 04/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 05/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 06/0000Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster TAWX14
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