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Hurricane Erick Winds: 95 kt
Pressure: 964 mbar
Advisory 18 / 2:00 PM PDT Wednesday, July 31, 2019

Erick is doing well for itself this afternoon. Although the hurricane's eye is obscured on satellite, the central dense overcast is symmetrical. In addition, the inner core looks better this afternoon than it did last night, when it appeared we were on the verge of rapid weakening. A consensus of satellite intensity estimates supports an intensity of 90kt, but an average of current intensity values yields 100kt. The initial intensity remains 95kt as a compromise.

Upper-level winds have increased over the past 24 hours, but they remain at marginal levels for now. In addition, ocean temperatures remain sufficient at 27C. Therefore, only slow weakening is forecast in the next 24 hours. Thereafter, while water temperatures will actually be on the increase, so too will wind shear. In fact, upper-level winds are expected to exceed 40kt on days 2 and 3. Thus, rapid weakening is forecast, and Erick is expected to become a remnant low about 96 hours from now, if not sooner.

The hurricane is moving west-northwest, steered by stout mid-level ridging to its north. Over the next 72 hours, a west to west-northwest course will continue as the mid-level pattern remains constant. Thereafter, though, a weak mid-level trough should induce a weakness in the ridge to Erick's north, allowing the weak system to move between west-northwest and northwest.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 95 KT 110 MPH

12H 01/0600Z 85 KT 100 MPH

24H 01/1800Z 65 KT 75 MPH

36H 02/0600Z 55 KT 65 MPH

48H 02/1800Z 40 KT 45 MPH

72H 03/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH

96H 04/1800Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 05/1800Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster TAWX14
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