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Hurricane Erick Winds: 95 kt
Pressure: 964 mbar
Advisory 17 / 8:00 AM PDT Wednesday, July 31, 2019

Erick shows signs of a slow and methodical weakening this morning, gradually shedding its outer layers in extended bands of cirrus, especially south of the center of circulation. A faint, cloud-filled eye has persisted on infrared imagery, and an 1146z GMI microwave pass showed this small eye and closed eyewall. However, the southern periphery of the core has been eroding and is becoming increasingly ragged. Current intensity estimates this morning included T5.5/102kt from SAB and T5.0/90kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. AMSU-A pressure estimates were of fair confidence at 8z and centered at 965 mbar. Blending all estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory is 95 kt, making Erick a Category 2 hurricane.

A slight west-northwest motion continues this morning as Erick follows a slight northward ascent due to a slight mid-level weakness in subtropical ridging near Hawaii. However, as the pressure depression shallows, Erick should curve to due west along with the tradewind flow. This transition will be slow and subtle, taking place throughout the next three days. In the meantime, Erick is traversing a region of slightly unfavorable upper-level winds which will rapidly transition into hostile conditions tonight with a rapid transition from 15 kt to 25+ kt deep-layer shear overnight. Along with an increasingly drier environment, this will likely be the death knell for the hurricane. Weakening is anticipated throughout the forecast.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 95 KT 110 MPH

12H 01/0000Z 85 KT 100 MPH

24H 01/1200Z 70 KT 80 MPH

36H 02/0000Z 55 KT 65 MPH

48H 02/1200Z 40 KT 45 MPH

72H 03/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH

96H 04/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 05/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster Kalassak
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