|Hurricane Erick||Winds: 100 kt|
|Pressure: 959 mbar|
|Advisory 16 / 2:00 AM PDT Wednesday, July 31, 2019|
Erick's satellite representation has held fairly steady since the last advisory. The structure remains much the same, with bursts of deep convection cycling around the cloud-filled eye, a perhaps somewhat larger CDO than a few hours ago, and the same banding extending from the north to the east of the hurricane. The northeast side of the deepest convection does appear to have warmed and thinned significantly. The storm may have actually intensified a bit briefly earlier, though, with microwave passes at 03z and 0410z showing a more organized inner core with a double eyewall. Dvorak estimates have fallen with SAB and PGTW giving T5.0/90kt and PHFO giving T4.5/77kt. Current intensity values from the same agencies are now T6.0/115kt and T5.5/102kt, respectively. Unlike the last advisory, I can't justify matching the instantaneous estimates because the satellite representation hasn't changed that much and the storm hasn't weakened significantly. Although, being in some phase of an eyewall replacement cycle, the winds have likely decreased a little and the initial intensity is set to 100 kts.
The same general thinking as last advisory applies to this one. Wind shear is currently around 10-15kt and is expected to stay at that intensity for the next 24 hours or so before increasing rapidly as Erick approaches the subtropical jet. As the hurricane continues to weaken, mid-level humidity values will fall, and despite 27-28C sea surface temperatures, decreasing humidity and increasing shear will rapidly take their toll on Erick beginning day 2.
Erick continues to move west-northwest on the southern periphery of mid-level ridging. By the end of day 2, Erick should be shallow enough to be steered westward by the low-level trade winds. Erick will again turn to the west-northwest around day 4 under the influence of a mid-level trough as it weakens the surface high pressure north of the decaying system.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 31/0900Z 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW120H 05/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW