|Hurricane Erick||Winds: 115 kt|
|Pressure: 950 mbar|
|Advisory 14 / 2:00 PM PDT Wednesday, July 30, 2019|
Erick looks stout this afternoon, with a sharply defined eye that has become increasingly clearer. GOES-17 has detected numerous lightning strikes within the eyewall, and such events are often portents of significant intensity change, though research is still undecided whether this entails strengthening or weakening. The edges of the central dense overcast have smoothened out. However, there's some internal roughness in Erick's convection ongoing, increasing especially in the last few hours, moreso than can be explained by just daytime warmth. Some elongation and asymmetry of the overall convective structure has also occurred. A lack of quality microwave observations make internal diagnoses difficult, but previous data suggested the core was quite fragile and susceptible to a possible eyewall replacement event. PHFO and SAB gave T6.0/115kt while PGTW remained the upper bar at T6.5/127kt. Scatterplot analyses from UW-CIMSS ADT have stuck around T6.0/115kt. For now I've assigned an initial intensity of 115 kt based on these values and the trends observed in approximately the last three hours.
There's not a whole lot in the environment stopping Erick this afternoon and probably not tonight, either, so ultimately the developments in the next 12 hours will largely be predicated by internal changes. A minor upper-level shortwave trough passing is expected to pass north of the hurricane, but is not initially expected to produce much shear tonight. In fact you're more likely to see some superb outflow channels as has been the case recently. This could allow for additional intensification, but only if Erick remains structurally sound during the period. There are some indications on infrared data suggesting Erick may have already peaked this afternoon, but we'll need a few more hours of observations to make that judgement. I have decided to no longer depict additional strengthening in the forecast. Some models have suggested a sort of second wind of rapid intensification tonight, but I'm starting get a little skeptical over this occuring based on recent trends. Beginning tomorrow, developing 200-400 hPa counterflow is expected to crank up wind shear drastically. Rapid weakening is depicted then as the storm dwindles south of Hawaii.
Hurricane Erick continues its general west-northwest track given the extended ridging to its north, and there shouldn't be any considerable changes to this path given that the low-level flow regime and the deep-layer flow are somewhat coaligned. Still, a westward inflection is expected to commence occur on day 3 upon a weaker Erick.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 30/2100Z 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH120H 04/1800Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW