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Hurricane Erick Winds: 85 kt
Pressure: 978 mbar
Advisory 12 / 11:00 PM HST Monday, July 29, 2019

Erick is finally getting its act together this morning. An eye is evident on infrared satellite imagery embedded within a central dense overcast, with banding extending from the eastern side out around the storm. Dvorak estimates vary wildly, with values at 06z coming in at T4.0/65kt from SAB, T4.5/77kt from PHFO, and T5.0/90kt from PGTW. Additionally, the latest ADT estimate is the lowest of them all at T3.8/61kt. A straight blend of these values would give an estimate of 75kt, but given the intensification since the majority of these estimates have come in, the initial intensity has been set to 85kt, closer to the PGTW estimate, making Erick a category 2 hurricane.

Despite the doubts expressed in the last advisory, Erick appears to have recovered and is currently rapidly intensifying as it works to clear its eye out. This has resulted in a fairly significant adjustment of the forecast intensity upward, especially in the short term. Some slight westerly shear is noted on infrared satellite imagery on the western periphery of the storm. An upper anticyclone much stronger than models previously indicated is the source of this shear and its effects will increase upon Erick late today into tomorrow as the hurricane moves closer to the system. With Erick's small size, this leaves it much more susceptible to environmental factors such as this increase in shear, which may have the effect of the hurricane reaching peak intensity much sooner than previously forecast. This has been amended in this advisory's forecast as well. After this, although sea surface temperatures remain 27-28C throughout the forecast period, conditions will deteriorate with the increasing shear affecting the inner core structure, shearing away much of the mid-level moisture envelope around Erick and leaving the hurricane susceptible to a drier more stable environment, resulting in quick weakening at first as the storm approaches the Hawaiian Islands to the south, but then slowing as the conditions remain somewhat marginal.

Erick will continue to track toward the west-northwest until about day 3, where it will be shallow enough to be influenced mostly by the low-level trade winds. Thereafter it will track toward the west, south of the Hawaiian Islands.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 85 KT 100 MPH

12H 30/1800Z 100 KT 115 MPH

24H 31/0600Z 110 KT 125 MPH

36H 31/1800Z 95 KT 110 MPH

48H 01/0600Z 80 KT 90 MPH

72H 02/0600Z 55 KT 65 MPH

96H 03/0600Z 35 KT 40 MPH

120H 04/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster Kalassak
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