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Hurricane Erick Winds: 65 kt
Pressure: 991 mbar
Advisory 11 / 8:00 PM PDT Monday, July 29, 2019

Erick continues life as a minimal hurricane this evening. The system has reacquired its inner core from earlier this morning, although the supporting 23z microwave pass suggested this core was not particularly sturdy. A ragged eye has been intermittently evident on visible imagery throughout the afternoon. Satellite intensity estimate as of this advisory are T3.9/63kt from UW-CIMSS ADT and T4.0/65kt from SAB and TAFB. This gives high confidence in assigning an initial intensity of 65kt.

Erick spent all day recovering its inner core, which is wasted time on the cyclone's part. Now that it has done so, though, the environment appears conducive in the short term for some development. The biggest change today has been in uptick in the amount of shear predicted between days 1 and 3. As a result, the SHIPS, LGEM, and ECMWF show only modest intensification remaining. On the other hand, the HWRF and GFS depict a stronger hurricane bordering on major hurricane status. As I pointed out in the previous advisory, rapid intensification indices via the SHIPS are nowhere near the level they were this time yesterday, setting up a complicated intensity forecast. Erick is a small storm, making it especially susceptible to environmental factors and large intensity swings up or down. It is hard to find much supporting evidence for a peak strength as high as indicated in previous forecasts, so that has been lowered this cycle. Otherwise, the general philosophy remains the same.

Erick is now moving toward the west-northwest, and this motion is expected to continue for the next 3 to 4 days as a mid-level ridge to the storm's north weakens a little and shifts east. By day 5, though, the shallow nature of Erick should yield itself to the mercy of the low-level easterly trade wind flow, resulting in a turn toward the west. This will keep Erick south of the Hawaiian Islands.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 65 KT 75 MPH

12H 30/1200Z 75 KT 85 MPH

24H 31/0000Z 85 KT 100 MPH

36H 31/1200Z 95 KT 110 MPH

48H 01/0000Z 100 KT 115 MPH

72H 02/0000Z 60 KT 70 MPH

96H 03/0000Z 35 KT 40 MPH

120H 04/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster TAWX14
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