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Hurricane Erick Winds: 65 kt
Pressure: 992 mbar
Advisory 10 / 2:00 PM PDT Monday, July 29, 2019

Erick is sending mixed signals in terms of organization this afternoon. A series of microwave passes between 14z and 15z indicated that the storm's well-defined inner core had collapsed for unknown reasons. However, recent visible satellite imagery depicts a nascent eye that may indicate this was a temporary decrease in organization. Recent satellite intensity estimates were T3.8/61kt from UW-CIMSS ADT and T4.0/65kt from SAB. Therefore, the initial intensity is held a possibly generous 65kt.

The upper-level environment near Erick is quite literally perfect, with the 18z SHIPS analyzing 0kt of wind shear. However, a general increase in upper-level winds is depicted in today's modelling, with values becoming notable about a day from now and destructive about 72 hours from now. Ocean temperatures are expected to remain near or above 27C through the entire forecast period. On the other hand, mid-level relative humidity values -- which are already quite marginal compared to most East Pacific storms -- should fall to unfavorable levels within 48 hours. This sets up a complicated intensity forecast, as has been true for most of Erick's life. The SHIPS, LGEM, and ECMWF are forecasting a low-end Category 1 hurricane. This is counteracted by the GFS and HWRF models which show a major hurricane or roundabout. SHIPS rapid intensification indices have fallen dramatically since last night, throwing more uncertainty into the mix. Given the storm's struggles today, as well as the slightly less favorable environment in the medium range compared to previous expectations, I have slightly lowered the forecast for this package across the board. Further adjustments may be necessary.

Erick continues to glide westward this afternoon. A slight deviation more toward west-northwest should occur over the next 3 to 4 days as a weakness in the strong mid-level ridge to the storm's north develops. By the end of the period, low-level easterly trade winds should become the primary steering mechanism as Erick loses vertical depth.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 65 KT 75 MPH

12H 30/0600Z 70 KT 80 MPH

24H 30/1800Z 85 KT 100 MPH

36H 31/0600Z 95 KT 110 MPH

48H 31/1800Z 105 KT 120 MPH

72H 01/1800Z 65 KT 75 MPH

96H 02/1800Z 40 KT 45 MPH

120H 03/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster TAWX14
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