|Tropical Depression Dalila||Winds: 30 kt|
|Pressure: 1007 mbar|
|Advisory 9 / 2:00 AM PDT Wednesday, July 24, 2019|
Dalila's satellite representation remains much the same as last advisory with northerly sheared deep convection displaced to the south of a broad low-level circulation center. An ASCAT-B pass at 0451z indicated that the winds within Dalila have weakened significantly, with only a few 25kt barbs present. Dvorak satellite estimates at 06z came in at T1.5/25kt from SAB and T2.5/35kt from TAFB. Given a blend of this data and the weakening winds determined from ASCAT, the initial intensity has been lowered to 30kt, making Dalila a tropical depression.
While upper-level winds are expected to be increasingly favorable over the next few days as they decrease, Dalila is nearing its end as a result of the marginal sea surface temperatures it is currently located over. These will decrease to around 24C by this time tomorrow, which will result in decreasing instability and moisture. Dalila is expected to continue weakening and become post-tropical perhaps as soon as 12h from now but it may last a bit longer into the 24h range, which the forecast shows. The post-tropical remnant low should open up into a trough around day 3.
Dalila continues to travel generally north-northwest into the weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge. This motion should shift west as the system weakens and becomes embedded in the low-level flow of the easterly trade winds.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0900Z 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 20 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 25/1800Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 26/0600Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW72H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED